Monday morning, July 23, the ARC sent out an email titled "10 Facts about the Regional Transportation Referendum". I would like to respond.
1. Low spending and high congestion: Georgia ranks 48th in the nation in transportation spending per capita, and ranks 4th in total hours the average commuter spends in on the road each day.
Yes, we need to find more money for transportation. But first, we need to manage what we are spending more intelligently. GDOT has failed its last 4 audits and can’t seem to find about $1 billion. Also, according to ARC’s own analyst after we spend $8 billion on these projects the reduction in commute times will be “not much”.
2. Little room for expansion: Without additional funding, about 70 percent of metro Atlanta’s scheduled transportation dollars for the next 30 years will be spent on maintaining our current transportation network, leaving little room for expansion.
Again, we need to fix GDOT first. Maintaining the roads can only be efficient if they can prudently maintain their accounts.
3. Congestion will increase as revenues decrease: Congestion will get worse as the region continues to grow – by some three million more people in the next 25 years. Meanwhile, gas tax revenues will continue to decline as cars become more fuel-efficient.
What’s interesting about this statement is that according to the ARC’s own projections the growth will occur in areas that are not a focus of this project list. Additionally, in the same breath they are screaming that we are "losing" growth to other cities. Adding 3 million more people doesn't sound like "losing" to me.
4. Money stays here: All monies generated here by the 10-year, regional transportation referendum would stay in metro Atlanta and be invested in high-priority projects throughout our 10 counties, from interchange improvements at I-285 and GA 400, to road and safety improvements, to a new light rail line from the Lindbergh MARTA station to the Clifton Corridor.
How much of the already-allocated money for these projects will be redirected to other projects? What is the current origin-destination demand that is being met by the Clifton Corridor project? Wouldn’t it be met less expensively by bus? The I-285/GA400 project isn't scheduled to start until 2020, and is 75% funded by federal dollars which aren't yet secure. How can it be "high-priority"?
5. Positive return on investment: The economic impact over time on the Atlanta region would be far greater than the 1996 Olympics. The referendum investment would result in a $34.8 billion increase in gross regional product in the Atlanta region by 2040. That’s a 4-to-1 return on investment.
Once again, please let us know the underlying assumptions used in your model to get this result. Who realizes the return? What ridership assumptions? What reduction in trip times was used?
6. Job creation and retention: Some 200,000 jobs would be created or retained through the build-out of these new transportation projects. The positive economic effect equates to approximately 7,100 jobs each year from 2013 through 2040.
Already proven to be a false statement by Politifact. Job-years and manipulative assumptions yield an unrealistic number.
7. Business and workforce development opportunities: Policies for strong small business and minority contracting and workforce development efforts have been developed and adopted by key agencies responsible for the project build-out.
Is this about race? Increasing our taxes to provide even more entitlement preferences is not acceptable.
8. Cost savings to commuters: Commuters spend an average of $924 each year due to traffic congestion. Collectively, the time and fuel savings generated by referendum projects would allow residents to save $9.2 billion by 2040.
Again, not sure how the “not much” reduction in commute times can realistically affect the number. 2040 is 28 years from now. What’s the return inside the 10-year tax window. How many projects will be completed within that window? How will the ongoing costs be paid for? Are those ongoing costs included in the “savings” number?
9. Decrease in travel delays: Travellers will enjoy a 24 percent average decrease in future travel delays on roadways improved through road widening, new construction and improved interchanges.
What does the 24 percent mean in terms of minutes? A 24 percent reduction in a 10-minute delay is only 2.4 minutes.
10. Air quality benefits: Air quality improvement would be equal to taking 72,000 vehicles off the roads daily.
These will be offset by the emissions generated by running empty trains and busses all day long. On a total system basis, emissions will be greater for transit than for automobiles.
Get the real facts at www.TrafficTruth.net. Vote NO to the TSPLOST on July 31.
Brandon Beach.
Which local candidate is illegally plastering campaign signs all over town in the right of way and on private subdivision property? Oh, yes the same Brandon Beach.
He then appointed himself as 1 of 4 legislators on the Regional Roundtable which decided which projects made the final cut but he never showed up for a single meeting. Now Chip has an opponent and he is opposed toe the bill. The hypocrisy disgusts me.
Rogers that voted to allow the voters to decide the issue or Beach that energetically worked to raise funds to advertise [or 'educate' if you prefer] T-SPLOST. Beach = Rogers on the issue, so stop beating the same horse with two names.
Brandon Beach has been out vocally supporting the tax increase known as TSPLOST. I understand that Chip Rogers was for it before he was against it. However he has been a very vocal opponent of it. He was recently on WSB radio discussing why he's against it. I know, I know two more slimy politicians. I have to go with the lesser of those. For me a 10 year, 16 percent tax increase on top of the already 1% no one ever talks about, that Fulton and DeKalb already pay is just too much. Beach made a big mistake backing this large turd.
Assuming this, would you rather have someone from North Fulton representing you or someone that Cherokee County no longer wants representing them?
I offer my counterpoint to Mr. Lowry's rebuttal and appreciate anyone who reads. My qualifications: both of my uncles, my best friend from my youth (at age 31 with a wife and 3 daughters < 5 y/o), two of my cousins (in their 20s), my next door neighbor growing up (who was 14 y/o) were all killed in car wrecks. My hard-earned money that would otherwise be spent at local businesses, for tourist purposes, or for my sons' educations is instead blown on liability insurance, gasoline, and a laundry list of car maintenance. 1. "Yes, we need to find more money..." --- This completely dismisses the sorry state of Metro-transportation... 48th in transportation spending, 4th in commuter time. Time wasted in traffic is precious minutes that even the allegedly $1 Billion lost dollars can recover. ARC addresses the problem -- valuable family time wasted in traffic jams. Lowry's solution: "we need to manage what we are spending more intelligently," a non-sequitur that could apply to any organization or person that manages a checkbook.
2. "Again, we need to fix GDOT first...." ---expanding on his non-sequitur, Lowry restates his opinion of the issue without offering any solutions or ideas. I passed a roadwork site last week. In 1 day, 4 miles of roadway was repaved with 1 machine and 8 workers. It was highly efficient, despite Lowry's missive that "Maintaining the roads can only be efficient if they can prudently maintain their accounts." He does not define "they" and denigrates the hard work of the people who fix the roads. 3. "What’s interesting about this statement is..." TSPLOST is not supposed to address areas of population growth, but areas of worsening traffic congestion. The areas projected to grow will use the same congested roads to get to their jobs in the city. ARC was not "screaming in the same breath." They wrote one fact, that "same breath" was Lowry's. Whether growth or otherwise, 3 million more people on I-285 sounds like a disaster waiting to happen to me. Lowry's apparent plan is to react instead of plan ahead. 4. "How much of the already-allocated money.... " Instead of disputing ARC's facts, Lowry asks pointed questions that suggest this nominal tax will fund corrupt organizations. If there was a demand for bus service we would not be having this argument. Does Lowry have billion-dollar agreements with automobile, gas, insurance companies, and road-repair companies for software development?
I read through this twice, and missed the first time ya'll asked for the "underlying assumptions". Some underlying assumptions with conservative cost projections: Assume a typical metro-Atlanta commuter buys a used 2010 Camry for $15,000.00 cash, drives it 15,000 miles per year, and owns it 10 years. According to the calculations at edmonds.com that person's annual average cost will be: $2,114 per year in gasoline, $2,042 per year for liability insurance, $665 per year for ordinary maintenance, $276.00 per year for repairs, and $319.00 per year for taxes and fees. After depreciation, at the end of 10 years, that $15,000.00 purchase will have a value of a little more than $2,000.00, and that person will have spent nearly $25,000 just to keep the car running and legally registered. This used Camry hypothetical is a very conservative calculation. Most cars cost more than $15,000.00. And most people finance their cars, which adds another $1,260.00 per year. Those who finance are required by the lender to purchase collision insurance, which will cost you another $2,400 per year, WITH a spotless driving record for those older than 25. Lastly, even a Camry is unlikely to last more than 5 years. Over 10 years, money spent on a typical used car will cost over $35,000.00 PER CAR. In the worst-case scenario, over the same 10-year period, the nominal TSPLOST tax will have cost $3,500.00 per household per year.
--Not exactly, the Politifact meter gave the 200,000 figure a "mostly false" rating. That is not "proof" nor does it say the statement is entirely false. In ascertaining job numbers, primary and secondary jobs may be evaluated. Primary jobs are jobs of people who will work directly on the projects that TSPLOST pays for. Secondary jobs are those created by the earned income from the primary jobs, plus the increased customers resulting from enhanced commuting options. For those who would eliminate the expense of solo-commuting, they will have disposable income to spend on things besides their car, like local restaurants, theaters, and museums. The 200,000 number included secondary jobs, ARC admitted such and clarified that fact. Politifact provides a qualititative analysis and therefore cannot prove or disprove a quantitative statement. .... well, my bus has arrived at its destination. Glad to have had the opportunity to expressed my opinion while sitting in Atlanta congestion. Thanks to anyone who read, and vote YES for SPLOST!
Oh, and lucky Fulton and DeKalb enjoying paying for those improvements TWICE.
So I discount what he says as paid advertising.
"The top five cash donors to the campaign — the National Association of Realtors, the Georgia Highway Contractors Association, heavy equipment suppliers Yancey Brothers Co. and C.W. Matthews Contracting Co. Inc. — kicked in $981,000 among them. Cox Enterprises, owners of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB-TV, and Georgia Power Co. also donated $250,000 each." "But the bulk of the campaign’s $5,991,000 in financial support came from utilities, real estate interests, road-builders and other vendors that stand to benefit from a binge of highway construction — not that there’s anything wrong with that. The campaign also reported in-kind contributions totaling $477,000." Read entire story http://www.atlantaunfiltered.com/2012/07/24/real-estate-contractors-top-tsplosts-6m-donor-list/
Who is paying you to snipe at me?
***Atlanta congestion DOWN 33% since last year.....Atlanta congestion DOWN over 60% since 2010. Summary: They show traffic congestion across the Atlanta area is DOWN 33% over last year but it has leveled out. (Atlanta is 16th on the list in traffic congestion. The metric is 'hours-wasted/month'. Current: 1.8 hours-wasted/month (average). Last year: 2.4 hours-wasted/month (average). (that's about 6 minutes per work-day.) Source: http://scorecard.inrix.com/scorecard/ (this web-site is fascinating. If you click on the 'Atlanta' line, you can scroll down to see the average congestion by time-of-day for either the last 12-months or the current-month (April).) Once again, metric is; 'hours-wasted/month'. (They use 'time-on-a-cell-tower' (short time = fast, long time =slow) and compare to the speed-limit for the street/road/highway.) Same algorithm that Google uses on Google Maps (Traffic).