Schools

Modest Growth Predicted for North Fulton Schools

School board members ask if 5-year projections for Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta and Milton schools are too modest.

Fulton County Schools are projected to grow enrollment by nearly 5,500 students over the next five years with comparable growth among the North Fulton, Sandy Springs and South Fulton areas, the school district predicts. 

However, some school board members are asking if the projected growth in North Fulton is too modest.

In North Fulton - which includes Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta and Milton - an increase in new home closures has led the school system to project some growth in schools in the region.

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"In North Fulton County, the number of new home closures is on the rise," Yngrid Huff, executive director of the district’s Operational Planning department, told the school board. Comparing the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, the number of new homes being sold in the region has almost doubled."

The school board heard the system's annual presentation about enrollment growth and projections at its March 21 meeting.

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Yet, the projected enrollment growth is hardly explosive. Over the next five years, North Fulton's elementary schools are projected to see a total enrollment increase from 21,511 to 21,901; middle schools are projected to see a drop from 11,480 to 11,302; and high schools in the region will see an increase from 15,131 to 16,194. Growth among all North Fulton schools is projected from 48,122 to 49,397. 

The modest number led some school board members to question if North Fulton's projected growth was being underestimated.

"I'm not sure we've hit the mark on North Fulton," said Katie Reeves, school board member and Alpharetta's representative. "My very huge concern is that we might be making assumptions based on the last five years that might not really hold true." She pointed to several zoning notices popping up in the Windward area, which the school system has not projected to grow, and large undeveloped pieces of land in Milton.

School board member Linda McCain, who represents Johns Creek, echoed her concern. "There are just so many new housing developments popping up around me in North Fulton," she said.

Huff responded by telling the board that once zoning requests are officially approved, they are then taken into consideration in enrollment forecasts. 

The school system's annual forecasts are used to determine if new schools or additional classrooms may be needed.

District-wide, Huff said the current school year’s enrollment at 93,818 was a gain of 1,318 students over the last year. This year, Sandy Springs experienced the highest growth, with North Fulton and South Fulton schools also experiencing increases in enrollment. She said Sandy Springs experienced more growth due to private school students switching to the public school system.

*North Fulton high school enrollment projections:

School 2012-13 2017-18

GA DOE
Capacity

Alpharetta High 2,100 2,083 2,175 Cambridge High 1,080 1,855 1,900 Centennial High 1,869 2,346 1,950 Chattahoochee High 1,806 1,954 1,900 Johns Creek High 1,939 2,087 1,900 Milton High 2,179 1,881 1,950 Northview High 1,839 1,753 1,875 Roswell High 2,319 2,235 2,000 High Total 15,131 16,194 15,650

*See the PDFs accompanying this article for a complete breakdown of enrollment projections by elementary, middle and high schools; region; and county.


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